Weekly Muni Commentary
December 04, 2023 | Q4
Daily Avg. Offering Line Items
Daily Avg. Notional Offered
CUSIPs Offered on TWD
Dealers Offering on TWD
Buy/Sell Ratio Trend
Bid Wanted Flow
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Additional resources
Retail to the Rescue: How Retirees and Their Wealth Managers Have Breathed New Life into Institutional Muni Markets
Retail Trading Desks Find the Network Effect in Muniland
Webinar: The Network Effect in Muniland
Happy Monday!
November was one for the record books as both equities and bonds had incredibly strong performance. Economic news supported the strong performance as inflation continued to fall, the economy hummed in the face of high interest rates, the Fed softened its hawkish tone, and corporate earnings were solid. US stocks had their 7th best month in 30 years, as the S&P is up 12% since the lows of late October. The November rally recovered the losses from August through October when the market was jittery on interest rate concerns and the market experienced a 10% correction. Investment grade bonds had their best month in the last 30 years. Interest rates have come down from their mid-October peak as the ten year sits at 4.20%, down nearly 80bps since October 19th.
Municipal markets joined the party as they had their 6th best month ever and reversed YTD losses. Within investment grade, lower rated BBB had the strongest performance. The TW 10yr AAA benchmark finished November at 2.67% down from 3.64% at the beginning of the month. LSEG/Lipper reported $64 million of outflows from municipal mutual funds for the week ending 11/29. The TW 10yr AAA municipal / treasury ratio closed Friday at 63.6%, down from 66.6% on November 24th. Muni ratios continue to richen as they were close to 70% in early November.
The primary market will be active this week with $9+ billion expected to price. Noteworthy deals include: Commonwealth of PA - $2.11 billion, NYC Trans - $1.4 billion, and the State of Hawaii - $750 million.
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Proportion of muni buys vs. sells by client type on the TWD platform.
For the avoidance of doubt, a ratio < 1 indicates net selling activity.
Relative number of bid wanted requests sent to the TWD platform by client type, indexed to the first month in the time series.
Number of municipal inventory line items available on the TWD platform daily by liquidity provider type.
Municipal notional (000s) offered on the TWD platform daily by liquidity provider type.
Number of unique municipal CUSIPs offered daily on the TWD platform daily.
Number of unique liquidity providers offering municipals daily.
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